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Sheet 1: Contents
This file presents data from tables in CBO's July 2021 report Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 and provides supplemental data. |
www.cbo.gov/publication/57263 |
Contents |
Table 1-1. CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, by Category |
Table 1-1, Adjusted. CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, by Category, Adjusted to Remove the Effects of Timing Shifts |
Table 1-2. CBO's Baseline Projections of Federal Debt |
Table 1-3. CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays |
Table 1-3, Adjusted. CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays, Adjusted to Remove the Effects of Timing Shifts |
Table 1-4. CBO's Baseline Projections of Discretionary Spending |
Table 1-4, Adjusted. CBO's Baseline Projections of Discretionary Spending, Adjusted to Remove the Effects of Timing Shifts |
Table 1-5. Key Projections in CBO's Baseline |
Table A-1. Changes in CBO's Baseline Projections of the Deficit Since February 2021 |
Supplemental Table 1. Costs for Mandatory Programs That Continue Beyond Their Current Expiration Date in CBO's Baseline |
This file presents data from tables in CBO's July 2021 report Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 and provides supplemental data. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
www.cbo.gov/publication/57263 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 1-1. CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, by Category |
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Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Actual, | -2022 | -2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2026 | 2031 | |||||||||||
In Billions of Dollars | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenues | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Individual income taxes | 1,609 | 1,952 | 2,328 | 2,334 | 2,353 | 2,383 | 2,586 | 2,792 | 2,871 | 2,979 | 3,091 | 3,209 | 11,984 | 26,926 | ||||||||||
Payroll taxes | 1,310 | 1,346 | 1,391 | 1,504 | 1,550 | 1,588 | 1,644 | 1,703 | 1,768 | 1,834 | 1,900 | 1,968 | 7,677 | 16,849 | ||||||||||
Corporate income taxes | 212 | 238 | 317 | 379 | 390 | 402 | 401 | 391 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 397 | 1,889 | 3,857 | ||||||||||
Other | 291 | 306 | 355 | 381 | 378 | 359 | 354 | 367 | 364 | 366 | 371 | 382 | 1,827 | 3,676 | ||||||||||
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |||||||||||
Total | 3,421 | 3,842 | 4,390 | 4,597 | 4,671 | 4,734 | 4,984 | 5,253 | 5,396 | 5,572 | 5,754 | 5,957 | 23,376 | 51,308 | ||||||||||
On-budget | 2,456 | 2,863 | 3,401 | 3,513 | 3,542 | 3,566 | 3,773 | 3,995 | 4,091 | 4,218 | 4,352 | 4,506 | 17,796 | 38,957 | ||||||||||
Off-budget | 965 | 979 | 989 | 1,085 | 1,128 | 1,168 | 1,211 | 1,258 | 1,306 | 1,354 | 1,402 | 1,451 | 5,581 | 12,351 | ||||||||||
Outlays | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mandatory | 4,577 | 4,862 | 3,589 | 3,461 | 3,488 | 3,711 | 3,907 | 4,088 | 4,418 | 4,446 | 4,780 | 5,025 | 18,155 | 40,912 | ||||||||||
Discretionary | 1,628 | 1,652 | 1,649 | 1,610 | 1,592 | 1,625 | 1,660 | 1,701 | 1,746 | 1,778 | 1,827 | 1,877 | 8,136 | 17,065 | ||||||||||
Net Interest | 345 | 331 | 306 | 315 | 344 | 396 | 467 | 541 | 628 | 712 | 808 | 910 | 1,826 | 5,425 | ||||||||||
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |||||||||||
Total | 6,550 | 6,845 | 5,544 | 5,386 | 5,423 | 5,731 | 6,033 | 6,330 | 6,792 | 6,935 | 7,415 | 7,812 | 28,118 | 63,402 | ||||||||||
On-budget | 5,598 | 5,846 | 4,469 | 4,231 | 4,191 | 4,418 | 4,642 | 4,854 | 5,222 | 5,268 | 5,647 | 5,939 | 21,950 | 48,880 | ||||||||||
Off-budget | 953 | 999 | 1,075 | 1,155 | 1,233 | 1,313 | 1,391 | 1,476 | 1,570 | 1,667 | 1,769 | 1,873 | 6,167 | 14,521 | ||||||||||
Total Deficit | -3,129 | -3,003 | -1,153 | -789 | -753 | -998 | -1,049 | -1,077 | -1,395 | -1,363 | -1,661 | -1,855 | -4,741 | -12,093 | ||||||||||
On-budget | -3,142 | -2,984 | -1,067 | -718 | -648 | -852 | -869 | -859 | -1,131 | -1,050 | -1,294 | -1,434 | -4,155 | -9,923 | ||||||||||
Off-budget | 13 | -19 | -86 | -71 | -104 | -146 | -180 | -218 | -264 | -313 | -367 | -422 | -587 | -2,170 | ||||||||||
Primary Deficit | -2,784 | -2,672 | -848 | -474 | -409 | -602 | -582 | -536 | -768 | -652 | -853 | -946 | -2,915 | -6,669 | ||||||||||
Debt Held by the Public | 21,017 | 23,012 | 24,392 | 25,156 | 25,959 | 26,967 | 28,062 | 29,185 | 30,733 | 32,119 | 33,913 | 35,827 | n.a. | n.a. | ||||||||||
Memorandum: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gross Domestic Product | 21,000 | 22,401 | 24,323 | 25,356 | 26,191 | 27,076 | 28,033 | 29,103 | 30,195 | 31,305 | 32,449 | 33,670 | 130,980 | 287,702 | ||||||||||
As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenues | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Individual income taxes | 7.7 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.4 | ||||||||||
Payroll taxes | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | ||||||||||
Corporate income taxes | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||||||||||
Other | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | ||||||||||
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |||||||||||
Total | 16.3 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 17.9 | 17.8 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.8 | 17.8 | ||||||||||
On-budget | 11.7 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 13.5 | ||||||||||
Off-budget | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | ||||||||||
Outlays | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mandatory | 21.8 | 21.7 | 14.8 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.6 | 14.2 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 13.9 | 14.2 | ||||||||||
Discretionary | 7.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | ||||||||||
Net Interest | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | ||||||||||
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |||||||||||
Total | 31.2 | 30.6 | 22.8 | 21.2 | 20.7 | 21.2 | 21.5 | 21.7 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 21.5 | 22.0 | ||||||||||
On-budget | 26.7 | 26.1 | 18.4 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 17.3 | 16.8 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 16.8 | 17.0 | ||||||||||
Off-budget | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | ||||||||||
Total Deficit | -14.9 | -13.4 | -4.7 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -4.6 | -4.4 | -5.1 | -5.5 | -3.6 | -4.2 | ||||||||||
On-budget | -15.0 | -13.3 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.7 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -3.2 | -3.4 | ||||||||||
Off-budget | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||||
Primary Deficit | -13.3 | -11.9 | -3.5 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.2 | -2.3 | ||||||||||
Debt Held by the Public | 100.1 | 102.7 | 100.3 | 99.2 | 99.1 | 99.6 | 100.1 | 100.3 | 101.8 | 102.6 | 104.5 | 106.4 | n.a. | n.a. | ||||||||||
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This file presents data from tables in CBO's July 2021 report Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 and provides supplemental data. | ||||||||||||||
www.cbo.gov/publication/57263 | ||||||||||||||
Table 1-1, Adjusted. CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, by Category, Adjusted to Remove the Effects of Timing Shifts |
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Total | ||||||||||||||
Actual, | -2022 | -2022 | ||||||||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2026 | 2031 | |
In Billions of Dollars | ||||||||||||||
Revenues | ||||||||||||||
Individual income taxes | 1,609 | 1,952 | 2,328 | 2,334 | 2,353 | 2,383 | 2,586 | 2,792 | 2,871 | 2,979 | 3,091 | 3,209 | 11,984 | 26,926 |
Payroll taxes | 1,310 | 1,346 | 1,391 | 1,504 | 1,550 | 1,588 | 1,644 | 1,703 | 1,768 | 1,834 | 1,900 | 1,968 | 7,677 | 16,849 |
Corporate income taxes | 212 | 238 | 317 | 379 | 390 | 402 | 401 | 391 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 397 | 1,889 | 3,857 |
Other | 291 | 306 | 355 | 381 | 378 | 359 | 354 | 367 | 364 | 366 | 371 | 382 | 1,827 | 3,676 |
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |
Total | 3,421 | 3,842 | 4,390 | 4,597 | 4,671 | 4,734 | 4,984 | 5,253 | 5,396 | 5,572 | 5,754 | 5,957 | 23,376 | 51,308 |
On-Budget | 2,456 | 2,863 | 3,401 | 3,513 | 3,542 | 3,566 | 3,773 | 3,995 | 4,091 | 4,218 | 4,352 | 4,506 | 17,796 | 38,957 |
Off-Budget | 965 | 979 | 989 | 1,085 | 1,128 | 1,168 | 1,211 | 1,258 | 1,306 | 1,354 | 1,402 | 1,451 | 5,581 | 12,351 |
Outlays | ||||||||||||||
Mandatorya | 4,577 | 4,862 | 3,526 | 3,454 | 3,558 | 3,711 | 3,907 | 4,088 | 4,316 | 4,548 | 4,781 | 5,025 | 18,155 | 40,912 |
Discretionarya | 1,628 | 1,652 | 1,644 | 1,610 | 1,597 | 1,625 | 1,660 | 1,701 | 1,740 | 1,784 | 1,827 | 1,877 | 8,136 | 17,065 |
Net Interest | 345 | 331 | 306 | 315 | 344 | 396 | 467 | 541 | 628 | 712 | 808 | 910 | 1,826 | 5,425 |
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |
Totala | 6,550 | 6,845 | 5,476 | 5,378 | 5,499 | 5,731 | 6,033 | 6,330 | 6,684 | 7,043 | 7,416 | 7,812 | 28,118 | 63,402 |
On-Budgeta | 5,598 | 5,846 | 4,401 | 4,223 | 4,266 | 4,418 | 4,642 | 4,854 | 5,114 | 5,376 | 5,647 | 5,939 | 21,950 | 48,880 |
Off-Budget | 953 | 999 | 1,075 | 1,155 | 1,233 | 1,313 | 1,391 | 1,476 | 1,570 | 1,667 | 1,769 | 1,873 | 6,167 | 14,521 |
Total Deficita | -3,129 | -3,003 | -1,086 | -781 | -828 | -998 | -1,049 | -1,077 | -1,287 | -1,471 | -1,662 | -1,855 | -4,741 | -12,093 |
On-Budgeta | -3,142 | -2,984 | -1,000 | -710 | -724 | -852 | -869 | -859 | -1,023 | -1,158 | -1,295 | -1,434 | -4,155 | -9,923 |
Off-Budget | 13 | -19 | -86 | -71 | -104 | -146 | -180 | -218 | -264 | -313 | -367 | -422 | -587 | -2,170 |
Primary Deficit | -2,784 | -2,672 | -780 | -466 | -484 | -602 | -582 | -536 | -659 | -759 | -854 | -946 | -2,915 | -6,669 |
Debt Held by the Public | 21,017 | 23,012 | 24,392 | 25,156 | 25,959 | 26,967 | 28,062 | 29,185 | 30,733 | 32,119 | 33,913 | 35,827 | n.a. | n.a. |
Memorandum: | ||||||||||||||
Gross Domestic Product | 21,000 | 22,401 | 24,323 | 25,356 | 26,191 | 27,076 | 28,033 | 29,103 | 30,195 | 31,305 | 32,449 | 33,670 | 130,980 | 287,702 |
As a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product | ||||||||||||||
Revenues | ||||||||||||||
Individual income taxes | 7.7 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.4 |
Payroll taxes | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
Corporate income taxes | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Other | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |
Total | 16.3 | 17.2 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 17.9 | 17.8 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.8 | 17.8 |
On-Budget | 11.7 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 13.5 |
Off-Budget | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
Outlays | ||||||||||||||
Mandatorya | 21.8 | 21.7 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 13.9 | 14.2 |
Discretionarya | 7.8 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
Net Interest | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | ____ | |
Totala | 31.2 | 30.6 | 22.5 | 21.2 | 21.0 | 21.2 | 21.5 | 21.7 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 21.5 | 22.0 |
On-Budgeta | 26.7 | 26.1 | 18.1 | 16.7 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.6 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 16.8 | 17.0 |
Off-Budget | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
Total Deficita | -14.9 | -13.4 | -4.5 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -4.3 | -4.7 | -5.1 | -5.5 | -3.6 | -4.2 |
On-Budgeta | -15.0 | -13.3 | -4.1 | -2.8 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.4 | -3.7 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -3.2 | -3.4 |
Off-Budget | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Primary Deficit | -13.3 | -11.9 | -3.2 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.2 | -2.3 |
Debt Held by the Public | 100.1 | 102.7 | 100.3 | 99.2 | 99.1 | 99.6 | 100.1 | 100.3 | 101.8 | 102.6 | 104.5 | 106.4 | n.a. | n.a. |
For notes to this table, see the previous sheet. | ||||||||||||||
a. When October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend, certain payments that would have ordinarily been made on that day are instead made at the end of September and thus are shifted into the previous fiscal year. All projections presented here have been adjusted to exclude the effects of those timing shifts. | ||||||||||||||
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