Filetype Excel XLSX | Posted on 15 Aug 2022 | 3 years ago
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135x Filetype XLSX File size 0.19 MB Source: open.alberta.ca
Sheet 1: Cover
| This document contains information licenced under the | ||
| Open Government License – Alberta | ||
| Key Energy and Economic Assumptions | |||||||
| Fiscal Year Assumptionsa | 2019-20 Actuals | 2020-21 Actuals | 2021-22 Estimate | 2022-23 Forecast | 2023-24 Forecast | 2024-25 Forecast | |
| Crude Oil Pricesb | |||||||
| WTI (US$/bbl) | 54.85 | 42.32 | 74.00 | 70.00 | 69.00 | 66.50 | |
| Light-Heavy Differential (US$/bbl) | 14.82 | 10.58 | 13.60 | 14.30 | 14.40 | 14.70 | |
| WCS @ Hardisty (Cdn$/bbl) | 53.14 | 41.42 | 75.90 | 70.30 | 68.50 | 64.80 | |
| Natural Gas Priceb | |||||||
| Alberta Reference Price (Cdn$/GJ) | 1.39 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Production | |||||||
| Conventional Crude Oil (thousands of barrels/day) | 484 | 398 | 440 | 441 | 444 | 448 | |
| Raw Bitumen (thousands of barrels/day) | 3,085 | 2,968 | 3,220 | 3,296 | 3,316 | 3,368 | |
| Natural Gas (billions of cubic feet) | 4,045 | 3,857 | 4,012 | 4,118 | 4,166 | 4,203 | |
| Interest Rates | |||||||
| 3-month Canada Treasury Bills (%) | 1.57 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| 10-year Canada Bonds (%) | 1.42 | 0.74 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$)b | 75.2 | 75.7 | 79.8 | 79.0 | 79.5 | 80.1 | |
| Calendar Year Assumptionsa | 2019 Actuals | 2020 Actuals | 2021 Estimate | 2022 Forecast | 2023 Forecast | 2024 Forecast | 2025 Forecast |
| Gross Domestic Product | |||||||
| Nominal (billions of dollars) | 351.4 | 294.8 | 350.7 | 390.0 | 415.5 | 434.3 | 452.9 |
| % change | 1.5 | -16.1 | 19.0 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Real (billions of 2012 dollars) | 347.2 | 319.7 | 338.3 | 356.7 | 369.1 | 380.2 | 390.8 |
| % change | -0.1 | -7.9 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Other Indicators | |||||||
| Employment (thousands) | 2,279 | 2,130 | 2,239c | 2,330 | 2,408 | 2,467 | 2,513 |
| % change | 0.7 | -6.6 | 5.1c | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 7.0 | 11.4 | 8.7c | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Average Weekly Earnings (% change) | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Primary Household Income (% change) | 2.4 | -5.6 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Net Corporate Operating Surplus (% change) | 2.6 | -63.4 | 147.3 | 30.8 | 15.3 | 5.4 | 4 |
| Housing Starts (thousands of units) | 27.3 | 24.0 | 31.9c | 32.2 | 33.3 | 34.3 | 35.4 |
| Alberta Consumer Price Index (% change) | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3.2c | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Retail Sales (% change) | -0.8 | -2.7 | 15.1 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Population (thousands) | 4,363 | 4,420 | 4,443c | 4,506 | 4,578 | 4,651 | 4,721 |
| % change | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5c | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Net Migration (thousands) | 37.7 | 33.9 | 4.4c | 43.8 | 51.7 | 52.3 | 48.9 |
| a Forecast was finalized on February 8, 2022 | |||||||
| b Forecasts have been rounded | |||||||
| c Actual |
| Sensitivities to Fiscal Year Assumptions, 2022-23a | ||
| (millions of dollars) | ||
| Change | Net Impact (2022-23) | |
| Oil Price (WTI US$/bbl) | -$1.00 | -500 |
| Light/Heavy Oil Price Differential | +$1.00 | -460 |
| Natural Gas Price (Cdn$/GJ) | -10 Cents | -10 |
| Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$) | + 1 Cent | -445 |
| Interest Rates | +1% | -525 |
| Primary Household Income | -1% | -160 |
| a Sensitivities are based on current assumptions of prices and rates and show the effect for a full 12 month period. Sensitivities can vary significantly at different price and rate levels. The energy price sensitivities do not include the potential impact of price changes on the revenue from land lease sales. The interest rate sensitivity is based on estimates for new and refinanced taxpayer-supported and self-supported debt. | ||
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