jagomart
digital resources
picture1_Estimate Template Excel 41280 | Budget 2022 Fiscal Plan Economic Outlook Tables 2022 25


 126x       Filetype XLSX       File size 0.19 MB       Source: open.alberta.ca


File: Estimate Template Excel 41280 | Budget 2022 Fiscal Plan Economic Outlook Tables 2022 25
sheet 1 cover this document contains information licenced under the open government license ndash alberta sheet 2 keyassumptions key energy and economic assumptions fiscal year assumptionsa 201920 actuals 202021 actuals ...

icon picture XLSX Filetype Excel XLSX | Posted on 15 Aug 2022 | 3 years ago
Partial file snippet.
Sheet 1: Cover


This document contains information licenced under the

Open Government License – Alberta

Sheet 2: KeyAssumptions
Key Energy and Economic Assumptions














Fiscal Year Assumptionsa 2019-20 Actuals 2020-21 Actuals 2021-22 Estimate 2022-23 Forecast 2023-24 Forecast 2024-25 Forecast
Crude Oil Pricesb






WTI (US$/bbl) 54.85 42.32 74.00 70.00 69.00 66.50
Light-Heavy Differential (US$/bbl) 14.82 10.58 13.60 14.30 14.40 14.70
WCS @ Hardisty (Cdn$/bbl) 53.14 41.42 75.90 70.30 68.50 64.80
Natural Gas Priceb






Alberta Reference Price (Cdn$/GJ) 1.39 2.10 3.40 3.20 2.70 2.60
Production






Conventional Crude Oil (thousands of barrels/day) 484 398 440 441 444 448
Raw Bitumen (thousands of barrels/day) 3,085 2,968 3,220 3,296 3,316 3,368
Natural Gas (billions of cubic feet) 4,045 3,857 4,012 4,118 4,166 4,203
Interest Rates






3-month Canada Treasury Bills (%) 1.57 0.14 0.10 0.70 1.40 1.70
10-year Canada Bonds (%) 1.42 0.74 1.50 1.80 2.30 2.70
Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$)b 75.2 75.7 79.8 79.0 79.5 80.1
Calendar Year Assumptionsa 2019 Actuals 2020 Actuals 2021 Estimate 2022 Forecast 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast 2025 Forecast
Gross Domestic Product






Nominal (billions of dollars) 351.4 294.8 350.7 390.0 415.5 434.3 452.9
% change 1.5 -16.1 19.0 11.2 6.5 4.5 4.3
Real (billions of 2012 dollars) 347.2 319.7 338.3 356.7 369.1 380.2 390.8
% change -0.1 -7.9 5.8 5.4 3.5 3.0 2.8
Other Indicators






Employment (thousands) 2,279 2,130 2,239c 2,330 2,408 2,467 2,513
% change 0.7 -6.6 5.1c 4.1 3.3 2.5 1.9
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.0 11.4 8.7c 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.5
Average Weekly Earnings (% change) 1.4 3.2 2.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.9
Primary Household Income (% change) 2.4 -5.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.2 5.8
Net Corporate Operating Surplus (% change) 2.6 -63.4 147.3 30.8 15.3 5.4 4
Housing Starts (thousands of units) 27.3 24.0 31.9c 32.2 33.3 34.3 35.4
Alberta Consumer Price Index (% change) 1.8 1.1 3.2c 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.2
Retail Sales (% change) -0.8 -2.7 15.1 9.3 6.4 5.7 5.5
Population (thousands) 4,363 4,420 4,443c 4,506 4,578 4,651 4,721
% change 1.5 1.3 0.5c 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5
Net Migration (thousands) 37.7 33.9 4.4c 43.8 51.7 52.3 48.9
















a Forecast was finalized on February 8, 2022






b Forecasts have been rounded






c Actual







Sheet 3: Fiscal Sensitivities
Sensitivities to Fiscal Year Assumptions, 2022-23a
(millions of dollars)


Change Net Impact (2022-23)
Oil Price (WTI US$/bbl) -$1.00 -500
Light/Heavy Oil Price Differential +$1.00 -460
Natural Gas Price (Cdn$/GJ) -10 Cents -10
Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$) + 1 Cent -445
Interest Rates +1% -525
Primary Household Income -1% -160
a Sensitivities are based on current assumptions of prices and rates and show the effect for a full 12 month period. Sensitivities can vary significantly at different price and rate levels. The energy price sensitivities do not include the potential impact of price changes on the revenue from land lease sales. The interest rate sensitivity is based on estimates for new and refinanced taxpayer-supported and self-supported debt.

The words contained in this file might help you see if this file matches what you are looking for:

...Sheet cover this document contains information licenced under the open government license ndash alberta keyassumptions key energy and economic assumptions fiscal year assumptionsa actuals estimate forecast crude oil pricesb wti us bbl lightheavy differential wcs hardisty cdn natural gas priceb reference price gj production conventional thousands of barrelsday raw bitumen billions cubic feet interest rates month canada treasury bills bonds exchange rate cent b calendar gross domestic product nominal dollars change real other indicators employment c unemployment average weekly earnings primary household income net corporate operating surplus housing starts units consumer index retail sales population migration a was finalized on february forecasts have been rounded actual sensitivities to millions impact cents are based current prices show effect for full period can vary significantly at different levels do not include potential changes revenue from land lease sensitivity is estimates ne...

no reviews yet
Please Login to review.