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picture1_Estimate Template Excel 41279 | Budget 2020 Fiscal Plan Economic Outlook Tables 2020 23


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File: Estimate Template Excel 41279 | Budget 2020 Fiscal Plan Economic Outlook Tables 2020 23
sheet 1 cover this document contains information licenced under the open government license ndash alberta sheet 2 keyassumptions key energy and economic assumptions fiscal year assumptionsa 201718 actuals 201819 actuals ...

icon picture XLSX Filetype Excel XLSX | Posted on 15 Aug 2022 | 3 years ago
Partial file snippet.
Sheet 1: Cover




















This document contains information licenced under the

Open Government License – Alberta













Sheet 2: KeyAssumptions
Key Energy and Economic Assumptions














Fiscal Year Assumptionsa 2017-18 Actuals 2018-19 Actuals 2019-20 Estimate 2020-21 Forecast 2021-22 Forecast 2022-23 Forecast
Crude Oil Pricesb






WTI (US$/bbl) 53.69 62.77 58.00 58.00 62.00 63.00
Light-Heavy Differential (US$/bbl) 14.40 23.31 14.70 19.10 20.60 16.40
WCS @ Hardisty (Cdn$/bbl) 50.38 51.65 57.70 51.20 54.50 60.60
Natural Gas Priceb






Alberta Reference Price (Cdn$/GJ) 1.82 1.34 1.40 1.70 1.80 2.10
Production






Conventional Crude Oil (000s barrels/day) 457 489 483 488 486 482
Raw Bitumen (000s barrels/day) 2,804 3,007 3,109 3,249 3,344 3,417
Natural Gas (billions of cubic feet) 4,211 4,158 4,083 4,144 4,199 4,233
Interest rates






3-month Canada Treasury Bills (%) 0.85 1.49 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70
10-year Canada Bonds (%) 1.91 2.19 1.50 2.00 2.20 2.20
Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$)b 78.0 76.3 75.5 76.5 77.0 77.5








Calendar Year Assumptionsa 2017
Actuals
2018
Actuals
2019 Estimate 2020 Forecast 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast 2023 Forecast
Gross Domestic Product






Nominal (billions of dollars) 332.2 344.8 350.5 360.3 381.7 404.0 426.0
% change 9.2 3.8 1.7 2.8 5.9 5.9 5.5
Real (billions of 2012 dollars) 341.0 346.5 347.7 356.5 366.4 376.9 387.3
% change 4.8 1.6 0.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8
Other Indicators






Employment (thousands) 2,287 2,331 2,343c 2,375 2,426 2,476 2,527
% change 1.0 1.9 0.5c 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.8 6.6 6.9c 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.1
Average Weekly Earnings (% change) 1.0 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.6
Primary Household Income (% change) 4.1 2.5 3.1 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.5
Net Corporate Operating Surplus (% change) 165.1 10.3 -3.9 -2.7 18.4 14.6 10.0
Housing Starts (thousands of units) 29.5 26.1 27.3c 28.0 28.8 31.9 35.5
Alberta Consumer Price Index (% change) 1.6 2.4 1.8c 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Retail Sales (% change) 7.1 2.0 -0.5 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.5
Population (thousands) 4,244 4,301 4,371c 4,439 4,514 4,601 4,694
% change 1.1 1.3 1.6c 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
Net Migration (thousands) 17.6 29.4 43.5c 40.6 47.4 59.5 66.0
a Forecast was finalized on January 21, 2020






b Forecasts have been rounded






c Actual















Sheet 3: Fiscal Sensitivities
Sensitivities to Fiscal Year Assumptions, 2020-21a

(millions of dollars)




Change Net Impact (2020-21)

Oil Price (WTI US$/bbl) -$1.00 -355

Light/Heavy Oil Price Differential +$1.00 -325

Natural Gas Price (Cdn$/GJ) -10 Cents -10

Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$) + 1 Cent -255

Interest Rates +1% -235

Primary Household Income -1% -220

a Sensitivities are based on current assumptions of prices and rates and show the effect for a full 12 month period. Sensitivities can vary significantly at different price and rate levels. The energy price sensitivities do not include the potential impact of price changes on the revenue from land lease sales. The interest rate sensitivity is based on estimates for new and refinanced taxpayer-supported and self-supported debt.





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...Sheet cover this document contains information licenced under the open government license ndash alberta keyassumptions key energy and economic assumptions fiscal year assumptionsa actuals estimate forecast crude oil pricesb wti us bbl lightheavy differential wcs hardisty cdn natural gas priceb reference price gj production conventional s barrelsday raw bitumen billions of cubic feet interest rates month canada treasury bills bonds exchange rate cent b calendar gross domestic product nominal dollars change real other indicators employment thousands c unemployment average weekly earnings primary household income net corporate operating surplus housing starts units consumer index retail sales population migration a was finalized on january forecasts have been rounded actual sensitivities to millions impact cents are based current prices show effect for full period can vary significantly at different levels do not include potential changes revenue from land lease sensitivity is estimates n...

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