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IPCC AR6 WGI - Second Order Draft Review Comments and Responses - Chapter 11
Comment ID From Page From Line To Page To Line Comment Response
The world is experiencing one of the most extremes of global pandemic in the form of COVID-19 this year. Rejected. This question is not addressed in Chapter 11 but in Chapter 7
Can we elaborate the connections of this pandemic with the issues of changing climate? I think AR6, in (Rejected.). Effects on climate were limited as highlighted in the
106145 0 0 0 0 general (if not specifically), need to address this big FAQ and provide knowledge-commentary on this Rejected..
nexus. One of the chapters could include this critical most FAQ/issue of this time that the world is facing.
Leaving this for IPCC AR6 to provide some useful information in this line (if possible)
overall the length of the chapters make it very hard to access the information. I find the level of detail Noted. The chapter has been shortened and the chapter team has made
overwhelming and ask the authors to cut back and make the report accessible. Some text, for example efforts to make the text overall more concise.
discussion of Precip assesses such a large range of indicators, that I loose the overview what the pattern
now is. Maybe a summative table might help to shorten the section and provide clarity. For me the mixture
99257 0 0 0 0 of highly detailed information of countries does not mesh with the higher level information for example in
the flow section. At the end it is hard to decipher what the main message is given the length and detail
The figures as currently drafted are extremely dense and hard to read even for someone who is used to Noted. The chapter team has reworked the figures to make them more
looking at such information. I think it is important to consider the audience again and reduce some figures accessible.
99261 0 0 0 0 in content and move some into an appendix
The abbreviations are inconsistently used in the report. For example, in the report, TXx is mostly used to Rejected. The acronyms can be understood from the context.
refer to the annual maximum daily maximum temperature, annual hottest daytime temperature (Box11.4
38363 0 0 0 0 Table 1 on page 145), but average annual TXx (line 2, page 44) or warm/temperature extremes (Table 11.7)
is sometimes also used. It is suggested to harmonize the normative use of abbreviations in order to avoid
misleading readers.
Suggest additional references: Considered. The most relevant and post-AR5 references are assessed in
- Barbero, R., Westra, S., Lenderink, G., & Fowler, H. J. (2018). Temperature‐extreme precipitation scaling: a 11.4
two‐way causality?. International Journal of Climatology, 38, e1274-e1279.
- Berg, P., Moseley, C., & Haerter, J. O. (2013). Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to
higher temperatures. Nature Geoscience, 6(3), 181-185.
- Busuioc, A., Birsan, M. V., Carbunaru, D., Baciu, M., & Orzan, A. (2016). Changes in the large‐scale
thermodynamic instability and connection with rain shower frequency over Romania: verification of the
Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. International Journal of Climatology, 36(4), 2015-2034.
- Hardwick Jones, R., Westra, S., & Sharma, A. (2010). Observed relationships between extreme sub‐daily
precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(22).
- Lenderink, G., & Van Meijgaard, E. (2008). Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations
from temperature changes. Nature Geoscience, 1(8), 511-514.
- Lenderink, G., & Van Meijgaard, E. (2010). Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to
atmospheric temperature and moisture changes. Environmental Research Letters, 5(2), 025208.
- Lenderink, G., Mok, H. Y., Lee, T. C., & Van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2011). Scaling and trends of hourly
precipitation extremes in two different climate zones–Hong Kong and the Netherlands. Hydrology and
66015 0 0 0 0 Earth System Sciences, 15(9), 3033-3041.
- Loriaux, J. M., Lenderink, G., De Roode, S. R., & Siebesma, A. P. (2013). Understanding convective extreme
precipitation scaling using observations and an entraining plume model. Journal of the atmospheric
sciences, 70(11), 3641-3655.
- Mishra, V., Wallace, J. M., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2012). Relationship between hourly extreme precipitation
and local air temperature in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16).
- Park, I. H., & Min, S. K. (2017). Role of convective precipitation in the relationship between sub daily
extreme precipitation and temperature. Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9527-9537.
In general, the discussion of extremes in the Caribbean region is very limited in the text of Chapter 11, in Noted. Small islands are now addressed in a cc-box in the Atlas. Some
comparison with other regions, except in Table 11.4. The references referring to extreme indices in the relevant material is included in the revised regional tables provided in
Caribbean, cited in Tabe 11.4 have not been discussed in the text. So, most of the assertments about Section 11.9.
Central America in the text, do not include the Caribbean. I suggest to balance the discussions including in
57453 0 0 0 #REF! the text some of the relevant references used in the Table.We have some brief discussion in the Atlas
regional section including the three CAM regions (Atlas, pages:68:lines 44-47; 70:lines 37-53) . Citing this
paragraph may be a choice.
The definition of the compound event listed on page 11-12 should be moved to page 11-6 line 6. Accepted. The definition has been included in the first mention of
compound events.
19323 0 0
Trends in extremes described in multiple figures (e.g. 11.1, 11.7) are based on different data periods, and Noted. The ES indicates that "Assessments of past changes and their
in turn these are different periods than are used for the trends described in the Atlas chapter. It would be drivers are from 1950 onward, unless indicated otherwise". Hence this
highly desirable to try to standardize the analysis period for trends across this chapter, and across multiple default time period is considered for most trends. However, this needed
chapters in WG1. to be adapted in some assessments and figures depending on the
35075 0 available datasets. We made sure to always indicate the time frames over
which the trends are computed when they depart from this default time
frame.
Being this a chapter on extreme and belonging to the regional chapters and given that often in the chapter Accepted. More literature based on RCM studies has been integrated in
there is the assessment on model validation and projection non only on continental scale but rather on a the chapter, in particular in the revised regional tables in Section 11.9.
more regional scale, it would be appropriate to use not only and always GCM. Given the literature partially
cited in the chapter but definitely available in other chapters of the report that show the added values
66329 0 when dynamical and statistical downscaling is used, especially for precipitation extremes in many regions,
it would be good to have some figures showing example of this as well as example on extreme
precipitation projection of multiple ensemble to highlight the differences in the regions where data are
available.
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IPCC AR6 WGI - Second Order Draft Review Comments and Responses - Chapter 11
Comment ID From Page From Line To Page To Line Comment Response
I will only give overarching comments on the chapter, without going into specific details. In general, the Accepted. More literature based on RCM studies has been integrated in
chapter is well organized and relates important information. The main drawback I see, and that I wanted to the chapter, in particular in the revised regional tables in Section 11.9.
bringto the author's attention, is that essentially by far most of the information provided is based only on
CMIP5 and CMIP6 data. This is quite disappointing, as there is by now a substantial literature based on
RCM simulations at resolutions from 25-50 km to convection permitting which addresses issues of extreme
events. This literature is only superficially and partially mentioned throughout the chapter, and for example
there are no figures based on RCM and other downscaling studies. In particular, there are papers based on
multi-modeland/or ensemble based CORDEX data (e.g. Giorgi et al., 2014 on precipitation extremes;;
Spinoni et al., JC, 2020 on global drought hotspots, or Coppola et al., CD, 2020 on hazards) which could
provide suitable figures. In fact, one could argue that current GCMs are not the most suitable tools to look,
81441 0 for example, at precipitaiton extremes, since a number of studies have demonstrated that they fail in
reproducing the tail of the precipitaiton distribution. The downscaling community has mad a huge effort in
improving its coordination exactly for the purpose of providig more solid information for use in programs
such as the IPCC, and I think this should be better recognised than done in this chapter. Incidentally, a
better treatment of downscaled information would also improve the consistency of this chapter with
others of the report and with the Atlas.
WGII ch2 "Terrestial and freshwater ecosystems" has a section on exrreme events and a CCB EXTREMES Noted. Because of the timing of the WGII report, the present chapter
highlighting extreme events and their impacts on biological systems - these overlap ch11. Care should be cannot refer to this upcoming report.
106531 0 taken to ensure consistency between WGs in messages and uncertainty assessments of those messages.
23085 0 Chapter as far as I can tell lacks a schematic visual abstract presently yet these are present for almost all Accepted. A visual abstract has been added.
other chapters.
Especially for Sub Chapter 11.2, there should be a brief and clear description of the Palaeoclimate Extreme Noted. It is unclear what “the paleoclimate extreme notes” is. Box 11.3
67895 0 Notes based on the existing instruments provides comparison of extremes in paleoclimate archives with
instrument records
In this chapter there is also no information about potential effects of 'extreme weather' for the case of an Rejected. Marine heatwaves do not belong to the scope of chapter 11
island state which is of marine nature, for instance coral bleaching. Coral bleaching has reached extreme and are addressed in chapter 9. This scope is indicated in the ES and
levels, for example in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. In Indonesian waters, cases of coral bleaching have introduction to chapter 11.
67897 0 been reported to increase. This issue may be considered as one of the effect of 'extreme weather' for
island or archipelagic countries. Coral bleaching may affect not only biodiversity, but it will also have socio-
economic impacts on the community.
I do see the advantages of a focus on warming levels. These can also be very uswful in the commuication Accepted. We have included a new Rejected. (11.1) addressing the issues
of findings. But I also see a need for adressing teh time dimension a bit more. Early in the process of highlighted by the reviewer.
writing WGI AR6 it was decided to use a core set of scenarios across the chapters. These are SSP1-1.9,
114747 0 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 (with additional scenarios where appropriate). It would strengthen
the report if these (to the extent possible) are also considered in ch11. That will also support a better
integration across chapters in the TS, SPM and also finally in SyR
The use of GMST vs GSAT has beed discussed at BOGs during pre-LAM. It will be important to implement Noted. This issue is addressed in chapter 2, in a Rejected. to which
114771 0 the conclusions from this process and ensure clarity and transparency on this issue. chapter 11 contributed. In model-based analyses from chapter 11, GSAT
is used as reference.
Tendency to bold summary statements of sections is at odds with all other chapters reviewed thus far. Rejected. We consider that this format is useful and would encourage the
other chapters to use a similar format. This was also applied in the IPCC
23135 0 SREX report. The summary paragraphs were also considered useful by
other reviewers (e.g. review comment #96105)
Altogether, a well structured chapter, especially the reoccurring sub-chapters (mechanisms/drivers, Noted. Thank you for the positive feedback. The FAQs have been revised.
observed trends, model evaluation, event attribution, projections), the summary at the end of each sub-
chapter, the blue boxes with additional information on case studies, etc. and the extensive literature list.
The FAQ section is a nice idea but it could be extended, in my opinion.
96105 0
When discussing pertinent trends to the regional case studies considered in chapter 10 thought should be Noted. More references to chapter 10 case studies have been included.
23163 0 given to cross-referencing and where the assessments overlap arguably it would be better to reconcile in
chapter 10 in their case studies to avoid overt repetition.
There is a situation where different anomalies in precipitation and temperature occurs simultaneously at Rejected. Too detailed for the assessment and "unusual event" is not
74367 0 the same time and place. This situation is called as unusual events (see Yulizar and Bardossy, 2020, Study very specific.
of changes in the multivariate precipitation series)
There is a comparably very high rate of self-citation compared to many other chapters. This may be Noted. The rate of self-citation has been carefully checked and reduced
because the authors are drwan from a small field and thus this is inevitable or it may indicate a need to where possible. In some areas, the chapter authors have contributed to a
assess a broader range of literature than was done in this draft in going to the FGD. large fraction of the available literature, which makes some level of self-
23167 0 citation unavoidable. A broader literature basis has been considered
wherever possible, including regional literature.
74369 0 In the context of identifying the precipitation extremes, the zero values of precipitation should also be Noted. This is the case for instance when using "consecutive dry days",
considered i.e. the number of consecutive days with zero precipitation.
Chapter uses GCM and ESM interchangably. The balance of the report tends to use ESM so suggest Rejected. Other chapters, in particular regional chapters (Chapter 10,
23177 0 replacing GCM with ESM unless GCM is essential term to use. Atlas), also often use the term GCM. Both terms are used across the AR6.
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IPCC AR6 WGI - Second Order Draft Review Comments and Responses - Chapter 11
Comment ID From Page From Line To Page To Line Comment Response
There is a significant mismatch in how much weight chapters 8 and 11 place on PDSI versus SPEI. Chapter 8 Taken into account. The drought assessment has been strongly
almost exclusively considers PDSI while chapter 11 downweights considerably this metric. Capters 8 and 11 coordinated for this round of revision between chapters 11, 8, 12 and the
need to agree who takes primary definitional aspects of drought (my feeling is it should be 8) and both Atlas. Definitional aspects (e.g. diagram on processes leading to
109965 0 then need to follow this. droughts) is now moved to chapter 8 in a simplified version. The present
assessment also considers PDSI, including caveats from the literature.
In general, the howle chapeter does not introduce enough climate changes in North Africa, especially in Noted. More literature on climate change in North Africa has been
Mediterranean region. There are many studies that highlight causes and effects on climate changes. included in the assessment (see in particular revised regional tables in
107409 0 Section 11.9)
Atmospheric Rivers are also assessed by chapter 8. They do not need to be assessed twice and chapter 8 as Taken into account. The assessment on atmospheric rivers has been
109977 0 scoped is the logical place to assess these. I suggest that the text in 11.7 gets given to chapter 8 and coordinated between Chapter 11 and Chapter 8.
integrated there.
You quite often use a construct "studied N continents / basins including ..." and then list all N cases. If you Noted. We have simplified this type of wording where possible.
23195 0 are going to list all N such cases then you don't need this complicated construct and you would be better
just to list the continents / basins / whatever which would be an easier read and also save space.
Excellent chapter. Well structured with a comprehensive assessment of published material. All statements Noted. Thank you for the positive feedback. The ES has been revised to
in the Executive Summary are qualitative. Is it possible to quantify the likelihood and severity of observed include more quantitative information.
9123 0 and projected changes (since WG2 has also been asked to do this)? Needs spell-checking.
The two different definitions of "attribution" should be made clear in this chapter. e.g.,1) the attribution of Taken partially into account. These two types of attribution are more
changes of frequency/magnitude of extremes over time, by testing hypothesis of an anthropogenic clearly distinguished in the text. However, even for single events, the
influence, versus 2) event attribution where the frequency/magnitude of a particular event due to (probabilistic) role of individual drivers can be assessed in some cases.
10925 0 anthropogenic influence is estimated by assuming anthropogenic influences have caused the climate to
change/warm. In several places in this chapter there are phrases that imply it is possible to attribute the
drivers of a specific individual event, when that is not currently possible.
Cross-referencing is uneven. There are some great examples where cross-references are made to the Noted. In the FGD revisions, the chapter team has made substantial
specific sections. Then there are some so-so efforts where a whole chapter is referenced and then there efforts to improve the cross-referencing to other chapters as well as
109999 0 are places where no effort has been made at cross-referencing. All sections should strive to add cross- recent IPCC reports (e.g. IPCC SRCCL).
references to other chapters with section-level specificity in the FGD.
Section 11.7.2 needs to be refocussed upon an assessment of extreme ETCs rather than all ETCs. The Accepted. The text in this section has been updated to cover only
present assessment overlaps very substantively with chapters 2,3,4, and 8 and chapter 11 should really changes in extreme ETCs and refer to other chapters, including chapters
only be concerned with the extreme storms rather than trying to cover all storms which is beyond its given 2, 3 and 8, whenever needed.
110005 0 remit. Material that pertains to general ETCs should be shared back to and integrated within these prior
chapters and instead cross-references made. The revised section should concentrate upon extreme ETCs.
The chapter has a huge number of brief introductions to sections many of which are not adding any real Noted. The chapter has been shortened and the chapter team has made
value and several of which arguably obfuscate rather than clarify. The propensity for use of these segments efforts to make the text overall more concise.
is also somewhat at odds with most other chapters. I would suggest removing or significantly reducing the
23231 0 vast majority of such segments in the FGD as it is the substantive assessment that matters not these link
pieces and teh chapter would be more in keeping with others were it to do so.
This chapter is disproportionately long compared to all chapters that have preceded it. For balance of the Noted. The chapter has been shortened and the chapter team has made
report as a whole it should be reduced in length. One of the easiest ways to do this would be to reduce efforts to make the text overall more concise. Overlaps with other
redundancy with earlier chapters. Quite often chapter 11 is over-reaching to perform assessment chapters have been reduced in coordination with these (e.g. as part of
110041 0 redundantly of mean state changes of hydrological cycle changes with resulting redundancies with the cross-chapter drought team)
chapters 2,3,4 and 8. It should instead start from these chapters findings making appropriate cross-
reference and then focus upon changes in extremes.
Figures would benefit from a number of tidies with a view to making them self-describing standalone Noted. The author team has improved the readability of the figures.
items suitable for use in outreach and education. Self-describing figure titles, clearer and larger fonts and
110057 0 more use of labelling to increase accessability would pay substantial dividends for realtively minor effort.
The extensive discussion of "compound events" in this Chapter is very welcome, as it highlights a thus-far Noted. This could not be added because of space limitations.
underexplored area of extreme event research. While brief references are made to the potential for
"successive" events, it would strengethn the Chapter to further expand on the challenges such
"successive" events can pose. Otto, et al. (2020) notes one illuminating lens through which to do so: the
notion of "loss amplification," which contends that back-to-back blows from extreme weather/climate
events can degrade the resilience of both natural and human/infrastructural systems — making it more
and more difficult for them to endure, abosorb, and recover from each successive event.
105973 0 Otto, Christian, Franziska Piontek, Matthias Kalkuhl, and Katja Frieler. “Event-Based Models to Understand
the Scale of the Impact of Extremes.” Nature Energy 5, no. 2 (February 2020): 111–14.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0562-4.
Excellent SOD with good improvements on extreme precipitation. As usual there are a number of Noted. Inconsistencies and overlaps with chapter 8 have been addressed.
inconsistencies and overlaps with Chapter 8 which can be agreed and addresed e.g. The most relevant and post-AR5 references are assessed in 11.4.
11.1.5 with 8.2.2.3
11.4.2 with 8.3.1.3
11.4 with 8.4.1.3.3
28921 0 11.5.2 with 8.3.1.5 and Box 8.2
11.5.5 with 8.4.1.5
11.7.1 with 8.4.2.5
11.7.1.2 with 8.3.2.5 and 8.2.3.2
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IPCC AR6 WGI - Second Order Draft Review Comments and Responses - Chapter 11
Comment ID From Page From Line To Page To Line Comment Response
Please consider to list all the Acronym for extreme indices,. Considered. While the literature assessed here used different indices,
indices are not the foci of Chapter 11’s assessment and as such do not
130555 0 need to be highlighted in the chapter text. Additionally, a list of all
acronym with their definition would make a long chapter even longer.
Hence, no acronym list was added.
For more standard word order, authors could consider: Extreme weather and climate events in a changing Rejected. The title is prescribed by the IPCC outline.
125797 1 1 1 1 climate. Or simply Extreme events in a changing climate.
In general there is a high tendency of self citation throughout the text. Even there are many places where Noted. The rate of self-citation has been carefully checked and reduced
the authors of this chapter included own paper which is less relevant. where possible. Also single citations have been carefully checked. In
some areas, the chapter authors have contributed to a large fraction of
62641 1 1 230 20 the available literature, which makes some level of self-citation
unavoidable. A broader literature basis has been considered wherever
possible, including regional literature.
In many places in the chapter there are issues with space between words and before or after a Accepted. The text has been carefully checked for the FGD version.
parenthesis. It will need to be carefully checked in the final version
80689 1 1 271 1
There are several typos in the text that will need to be corrected in the final version. I did not made a Accepted. The text has been carefully checked for the FGD version.
comment for each because the text may change until the final version but a careful proofreading is Further proofreading will be provided by the TSU for the typeset version.
necessary.
80691 1 1 271 1
There is no dicsussion/coverage of weather and extreme ecents in a changing climate around Antarctica. Noted. This chapter is focusing on inhabited regions and is thus not
This is a major deficiency and a missed opportunity. Please rectify this. See, for example: (1) Massom, R.A., covering extreme events in Antarctica. This scope is now clarified in the
Stammerjohn, S.E., Smith, R.C., Pook, M.J., Iannuzzi, R.A., Adams, N., Martinson, D.G., Vernet, M., Fraser, ES.
W.R., Quetin, L.B., Ross, R.M., Massom, Y. and Krouse, H.R. 2006. Extreme anomalous atmospheric
circulation in the West Antarctic Peninsula region in austral spring and summer 2001/2, and its profound
impact on sea ice and biota. Journal of Climate, 19, 3544-3571. and (2) Bergstrom, D.M., Woehler, E.J.,
Klekociuk, A.R., Pook, M.J. and Massom, R.A. 2018. Extreme events as ecosystems drivers: Ecological
83383 1 1 271 7 consequences of anomalous Southern Hemisphere weather patterns during the 2001/02 austral spring-
summer. Advances in Polar Science, 29(3), 190-204. doi/10.13679/j.advps.2018.3.00190. and (3)
Robinson, S. A., Klekociuk, A. R., King, D. H., Pizarro Rojas, M., Zuniga, G. E. & Bergstrom, D. M. (2020). The
2019/2020 summer of Antarctic heatwaves. Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15083.
The term 'human influence' is used throughout the chapter, but it's rather vague. What is meant by this Accepted. We have made the text more explicit where possible, e.g.
term needs to be explained upfront (perhaps with a callout to another chapter), while more specificity distinguishing between greenhouse gas forcing, land use forcing and
41015 1 1 271 9 should be given on the particular combination of human influence factors involved (e.g., aerosols) in the aerosol forcing where possible in the ES.
attributed changes presented, where appropriate.
41069 1 1 271 9 There's a need for more specificity in some chapter text (e.g., instead of saying 'some regions' state the Accepted. We have included much more details on the assessed regional
regions). changes (e.g. list of affected AR6 regions in ES).
The definition of the compound event listed on page 11-12 should be moved to page 11-6 line 6. Accepted. This is fixed in the final version of the chapter.
32777 1 1 300 50
The definition of the compound event listed on page 11-12 should be moved to page 11-6 line 6. Accepted. This is fixed in the final version of the chapter.
33107 1 1 300 50
In Section 10.3.3.5-7 we are discussing the representation of large-scale circulation (10.3.3.4), regional Noted. Some references to chapter 10 have been added where
phenomena (10.3.3.5), regional feedbacks (10.3.3.6) and regional drivers such as aerosoles and land-use appropriate.
changes (10.3.3.7) in different types of models. Much of this is relevant for Chapter 11 and should be
71471 1 1 referred to appropriately.
My congratulations and appreciation to the authors for a well-written chapter that was very interesting to Noted. Thank you for the positive feedback!
66935 1 1 read.
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