Budget Spreadsheet 32722 | 51136 2017 01 Trustfundprojections

Partial file snippet.

Sheet 1: Contents

	
	
		This file presents data that supplement CBO’s January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027.
	
	
		www.cbo.gov/publication/52370
	
	
		

	
	
		

	
	
		Contents
	
	
		

	
	
		1. Trust Fund Balances Projected in CBO's Baseline 
	
	
		2. Trust Fund Deficits or Surpluses Projected in CBO’s Baseline 
	
	
		3. Balances Projected in CBO’s Baseline for the OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds
	



Sheet 2: 1. Projected Balances

	
	
	
	
		This file presents data that supplement CBO’s January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		www.cbo.gov/publication/52370
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		1. Trust Fund Balances Projected in CBO's Baseline 
		
	
		Billions of Dollars
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		Actual,
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		2016
		2017
		2018
		2019
		2020
		2021
		2022
		2023
		2024
		2025
		2026
		2027
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Social Security
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		Old-Age and Survivors Insurance
		

		

		2,797
		2,809
		2,794
		2,779
		2,741
		2,669
		2,563
		2,419
		2,235
		2,007
		1,735
		1,412
	
	
		

		Disability Insurancea 
		

		

		46
		66
		88
		80
		59
		35
		7
		0
		0
		0
		0
		0
	
	
		

		

		

		

		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
	
	
		

		

		Subtotal
		2,843
		2,875
		2,882
		2,859
		2,800
		2,704
		2,571
		2,419
		2,235
		2,007
		1,735
		1,412
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Civilian Retirementb
		

		

		

		907
		925
		941
		957
		972
		985
		997
		1,009
		1,020
		1,031
		1,041
		1,051
	
	
		Military Retirement
		

		

		

		591
		663
		746
		828
		913
		1,003
		1,093
		1,192
		1,304
		1,413
		1,529
		1,538
	
	
		Medicare
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		Hospital Insurance (Part A)a
		

		

		192
		195
		205
		203
		193
		173
		131
		90
		49
		0
		0
		0
	
	
		

		Supplementary Medical Insurance (Part B)
		

		

		63
		65
		72
		77
		82
		94
		98
		103
		116
		128
		140
		153
	
	
		

		

		

		

		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
	
	
		

		

		Subtotal
		256
		260
		277
		280
		275
		267
		229
		193
		165
		128
		140
		153
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Highway and Mass Transita
		

		

		

		65
		50
		35
		19
		6
		0
		0
		0
		0
		0
		0
		0
	
	
		Unemployment Insurance
		

		

		

		54
		62
		69
		73
		69
		65
		63
		64
		63
		64
		65
		66
	
	
		Airport and Airway 
		

		

		

		13
		15
		16
		17
		17
		18
		19
		20
		21
		22
		23
		25
	
	
		Railroad Retirement (Treasury holdings)c
		

		

		

		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
		2
	
	
		Otherd
		

		

		

		107
		112
		114
		120
		121
		123
		125
		128
		131
		134
		138
		142
	
	
		

		

		

		

		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
		_____
	
	
		

		

		

		Total Trust Fund Balance
		4,837
		4,963
		5,083
		5,155
		5,175
		5,167
		5,099
		5,026
		4,939
		4,801
		4,674
		4,390
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Memorandum:
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Railroad Retirement (Non-Treasury holdings)c
		

		

		

		24
		23
		21
		20
		19
		18
		16
		16
		15
		14
		13
		12
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Source: Congressional Budget Office.
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		These balances are for the end of the fiscal year and include securities invested in Treasury holdings.
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		a. In keeping with the rules in section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline incorporates the assumption that scheduled payments will continue to be made in full after the trust fund has been exhausted, although there is no legal authority to make such payments. Because the manner by which those payments continued would depend on future legislation, CBO shows zero rather than a cumulative negative balance in the trust fund after the exhaustion date.
		
	
		
	
		
	
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		b. Includes Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller retirement trust funds. 
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		c. The Railroad Retirement and Survivors’ Improvement Act of 2001 established the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust, which is allowed to invest in non-Treasury securities, such as stocks and corporate bonds.
		
	
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		d. Consists primarily of trust funds for federal employees’ health and life insurance, Superfund, and various insurance programs for veterans. 
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		Z:\In Progress\1-Production\01-Studies & Reports\Budget and Economic Outlook\Supplemental Material\Supplemental Data (In Excel)\[TrustFundProjections.xlsx]1. Trust Fund Balances
		

		

	



Sheet 3: 2. Projected Deficits

	
	
	
	
	
	
	
		This file presents data that supplement CBO’s January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		www.cbo.gov/publication/52370
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		2. Trust Fund Deficits or Surpluses Projected in CBO’s Baseline 
		
	
		Billions of Dollars
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		Total
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		Actual,
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		2018-
		2018-
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		2016
		2017
		2018
		2019
		2020
		2021
		2022
		2023
		2024
		2025
		2026
		2027
		2022
		2027
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Social Security
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 
		

		

		

		30
		12
		-15
		-15
		-39
		-72
		-106
		-144
		-184
		-227
		-272
		-323
		-246
		-1,397
	
	
		

		Disability Insurancea
		

		

		

		4
		20
		22
		-9
		-21
		-24
		-28
		-31
		-34
		-36
		-39
		-43
		-59
		-241
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		____
		____
		____
		____
		____
	
	
		

		

		

		Subtotal
		

		34
		32
		8
		-23
		-59
		-96
		-133
		-175
		-218
		-263
		-312
		-366
		-304
		-1,638
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Civilian Retirementb
		156
		18
		17
		16
		14
		13
		12
		12
		11
		11
		11
		10
		72
		127
	
	
		Military Retirement
		60
		72
		83
		81
		85
		90
		90
		100
		111
		109
		116
		9
		430
		875
	
	
		Medicare
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		Hospital Insurance (Part A)a
		-3
		2
		10
		-2
		-10
		-20
		-42
		-41
		-41
		-62
		-83
		-103
		-64
		-392
	
	
		

		Supplementary Medical 
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		Insurance (Part B)
		

		

		-3
		2
		7
		5
		5
		12
		4
		4
		13
		13
		12
		13
		33
		88
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		____
	
	
		

		

		

		Subtotal
		-6
		4
		17
		3
		-5
		-8
		-38
		-36
		-28
		-49
		-71
		-90
		-31
		-304
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Highway and Mass Transita
		57
		-15
		-15
		-16
		-16
		-18
		-19
		-20
		-21
		-23
		-24
		-25
		-84
		-196
	
	
		Unemployment Insurance
		9
		9
		6
		4
		-4
		-5
		-2
		1
		-1
		1
		1
		1
		0
		4
	
	
		Airport and Airway
		1
		1
		2
		1
		0
		1
		2
		1
		1
		1
		1
		2
		5
		11
	
	
		Otherc
		2
		5
		2
		5
		2
		2
		2
		3
		3
		3
		4
		4
		13
		29
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		___
		____
		____
	
	
		

		

		

		

		Total Trust Fund Surplus or Deficit
		314
		126
		120
		72
		17
		-20
		-86
		-117
		-142
		-209
		-273
		-454
		102
		-1,093
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Intragovernmental Transfers to 
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Trust Fundsd
		

		

		

		

		708
		826
		741
		770
		816
		862
		912
		955
		987
		1,035
		1,107
		1,055
		4,102
		9,241
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Net Budgetary Impact of Trust 
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Fund Programs
		

		

		

		

		-394
		-700
		-621
		-699
		-799
		-882
		-999
		-1,071
		-1,129
		-1,244
		-1,380
		-1,510
		-4,000
		-10,334
	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Source: Congressional Budget Office.
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Negative numbers indicate that the trust fund transactions add to total budget deficits. 
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		a. CBO projects that the balance of this trust fund will be exhausted during the 2017–2026 period. However, in keeping with the rules in section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline incorporates the assumption that scheduled payments will continue to be made in full after the trust fund has been exhausted, although there is no legal authority to make such payments. The manner by which those payments continued would depend on future legislation.
		
	
		
	
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		b. Includes Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller retirement trust funds. 
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		c. Consists primarily of trust funds for railroad workers’ retirement, federal employees’ health and life insurance, Superfund, and various insurance programs for veterans.
		
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		d. Includes interest paid to trust funds, payments from the Treasury’s general fund to the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund, the government’s share of payments for federal employees’ retirement, lump-sum payments to the Civil Service and Military Retirement Trust Funds, taxes on Social Security benefits, and smaller miscellaneous payments.

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...Sheet contents this file presents data that supplement cbo rsquo s january report the budget and economic outlook to wwwcbogovpublication trust fund balances projected in baseline deficits or surpluses for oasi di hi funds billions of dollars actual social security oldage survivors insurance disability insurancea subtotal civilian retirementb military retirement medicare hospital part a supplementary medical b highway mass transita unemployment airport airway railroad treasury holdings c otherd total balance memorandum nontreasury source congressional office these are end fiscal year include securities invested keeping with rules section balanced emergency deficit control act incorporates assumption scheduled payments will continue be made full after has been exhausted although there is no legal authority make such because manner by which those continued would depend on future legislation shows zero rather than cumulative negative exhaustion date includes civil service foreign several ...

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This file presents data that supplement CBO’s January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027.
www.cbo.gov/publication/52370


1. Trust Fund Balances Projected in CBO's Baseline
Billions of Dollars

				Actual,
				2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027

Social Security
	Old-Age and Survivors Insurance			2,797	2,809	2,794	2,779	2,741	2,669	2,563	2,419	2,235	2,007	1,735	1,412
	Disability Insurancea			46	66	88	80	59	35	7	0	0	0	0	0
				_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____
		Subtotal		2,843	2,875	2,882	2,859	2,800	2,704	2,571	2,419	2,235	2,007	1,735	1,412

Civilian Retirementb				907	925	941	957	972	985	997	1,009	1,020	1,031	1,041	1,051
Military Retirement				591	663	746	828	913	1,003	1,093	1,192	1,304	1,413	1,529	1,538
Medicare
	Hospital Insurance (Part A)a			192	195	205	203	193	173	131	90	49	0	0	0
	Supplementary Medical Insurance (Part B)			63	65	72	77	82	94	98	103	116	128	140	153
				___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___
		Subtotal		256	260	277	280	275	267	229	193	165	128	140	153

Highway and Mass Transita				65	50	35	19	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Unemployment Insurance				54	62	69	73	69	65	63	64	63	64	65	66
Airport and Airway				13	15	16	17	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	25
Railroad Retirement (Treasury holdings)c				2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Otherd				107	112	114	120	121	123	125	128	131	134	138	142
				_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____	_____
			Total Trust Fund Balance	4,837	4,963	5,083	5,155	5,175	5,167	5,099	5,026	4,939	4,801	4,674	4,390

Memorandum:
Railroad Retirement (Non-Treasury holdings)c				24	23	21	20	19	18	16	16	15	14	13	12

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

These balances are for the end of the fiscal year and include securities invested in Treasury holdings.

a. In keeping with the rules in section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline incorporates the assumption that scheduled payments will continue to be made in full after the trust fund has been exhausted, although there is no legal authority to make such payments. Because the manner by which those payments continued would depend on future legislation, CBO shows zero rather than a cumulative negative balance in the trust fund after the exhaustion date.




b. Includes Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller retirement trust funds.

c. The Railroad Retirement and Survivors’ Improvement Act of 2001 established the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust, which is allowed to invest in non-Treasury securities, such as stocks and corporate bonds.


d. Consists primarily of trust funds for federal employees’ health and life insurance, Superfund, and various insurance programs for veterans.























													Z:\In Progress\1-Production\01-Studies & Reports\Budget and Economic Outlook\Supplemental Material\Supplemental Data (In Excel)\[TrustFundProjections.xlsx]1. Trust Fund Balances

This file presents data that supplement CBO’s January 2017 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027.
www.cbo.gov/publication/52370


2. Trust Fund Deficits or Surpluses Projected in CBO’s Baseline
Billions of Dollars

																	Total
					Actual,												2018-	2018-
					2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2022	2027

Social Security
	Old-Age and Survivors Insurance				30	12	-15	-15	-39	-72	-106	-144	-184	-227	-272	-323	-246	-1,397
	Disability Insurancea				4	20	22	-9	-21	-24	-28	-31	-34	-36	-39	-43	-59	-241
					___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	____	____	____	____	____
			Subtotal		34	32	8	-23	-59	-96	-133	-175	-218	-263	-312	-366	-304	-1,638

Civilian Retirementb					156	18	17	16	14	13	12	12	11	11	11	10	72	127
Military Retirement					60	72	83	81	85	90	90	100	111	109	116	9	430	875
Medicare
	Hospital Insurance (Part A)a				-3	2	10	-2	-10	-20	-42	-41	-41	-62	-83	-103	-64	-392
	Supplementary Medical
		Insurance (Part B)			-3	2	7	5	5	12	4	4	13	13	12	13	33	88
					___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	____
			Subtotal		-6	4	17	3	-5	-8	-38	-36	-28	-49	-71	-90	-31	-304

Highway and Mass Transita					57	-15	-15	-16	-16	-18	-19	-20	-21	-23	-24	-25	-84	-196
Unemployment Insurance					9	9	6	4	-4	-5	-2	1	-1	1	1	1	0	4
Airport and Airway					1	1	2	1	0	1	2	1	1	1	1	2	5	11
Otherc					2	5	2	5	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	13	29
					___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	___	____	____
				Total Trust Fund Surplus or Deficit	314	126	120	72	17	-20	-86	-117	-142	-209	-273	-454	102	-1,093

Intragovernmental Transfers to
Trust Fundsd					708	826	741	770	816	862	912	955	987	1,035	1,107	1,055	4,102	9,241

Net Budgetary Impact of Trust
Fund Programs					-394	-700	-621	-699	-799	-882	-999	-1,071	-1,129	-1,244	-1,380	-1,510	-4,000	-10,334

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Negative numbers indicate that the trust fund transactions add to total budget deficits.

a. CBO projects that the balance of this trust fund will be exhausted during the 2017–2026 period. However, in keeping with the rules in section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Deficit Control Act of 1985, CBO’s baseline incorporates the assumption that scheduled payments will continue to be made in full after the trust fund has been exhausted, although there is no legal authority to make such payments. The manner by which those payments continued would depend on future legislation.



b. Includes Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller retirement trust funds.

c. Consists primarily of trust funds for railroad workers’ retirement, federal employees’ health and life insurance, Superfund, and various insurance programs for veterans.

d. Includes interest paid to trust funds, payments from the Treasury’s general fund to the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund, the government’s share of payments for federal employees’ retirement, lump-sum payments to the Civil Service and Military Retirement Trust Funds, taxes on Social Security benefits, and smaller miscellaneous payments.

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