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Introduction Random matrix theory Estimating correlations Comparison with Barra Conclusion Appendix Random Matrix Theory and Covariance Estimation Jim Gatheral New York, October 3, 2008 Introduction Random matrix theory Estimating correlations Comparison with Barra Conclusion Appendix Motivation Sophisticated optimal liquidation portfolio algorithms that balance risk against impact cost involve inverting the covariance matrix. Eigenvalues of the covariance matrix that are small (or even zero) correspond to portfolios of stocks that have nonzero returns but extremely low or vanishing risk; such portfolios are invariably related to estimation errors resulting from insuffient data. One of the approaches used to eliminate the problem of small eigenvalues in the estimated covariance matrix is the so-called random matrix technique. We would like to understand: the basis of random matrix theory. (RMT) how to apply RMT to the estimation of covariance matrices. whether the resulting covariance matrix performs better than (for example) the Barra covariance matrix. Introduction Random matrix theory Estimating correlations Comparison with Barra Conclusion Appendix Outline 1 Random matrix theory Random matrix examples Wigner’s semicircle law The Marˇcenko-Pastur density The Tracy-Widom law Impact of fat tails 2 Estimating correlations Uncertainty in correlation estimates. Example with SPX stocks Arecipe for filtering the sample correlation matrix 3 Comparison with Barra Comparison of eigenvectors The minimum variance portfolio Comparison of weights In-sample and out-of-sample performance 4 Conclusions 5 Appendix with a sketch of Wigner’s original proof Introduction Random matrix theory Estimating correlations Comparison with Barra Conclusion Appendix Example 1: Normal random symmetric matrix Generate a 5,000 x 5,000 random symmetric matrix with entries aij ∼ N(0;1). Compute eigenvalues. Draw a histogram. Here’s some R-code to generate a symmetric random matrix whose off-diagonal elements have variance 1=N: n <- 5000; m <- array(rnorm(n^2),c(n,n)); m2 <- (m+t(m))/sqrt(2*n);# Make m symmetric lambda <- eigen(m2, symmetric=T, only.values = T); e <- lambda$values; hist(e,breaks=seq(-2.01,2.01,.02), main=NA, xlab="Eigenvalues",freq=F)
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