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New solutions for a
changing climate
The policy imperative for public
investment in agriculture R&D
By Molly Jahn
August 2020
Executive summary economic, financial, and security threats, US rural
■ US public investment in agricultural research in the communities have been left behind, undermining US
th st power and domestic well-being. Increasing global
20 and 21 centuries has resulted in unprecedented food insecurity, which has been amplified by increas-
worldwide production of a few staple crops and the ing weather extremes, will lead to economic and
improvement of dozens more. Increased crop yields political instability in many areas of the world, further
and animal production have drastically reduced fam- threatening US national security.
ine compared to previous centuries and supported
an overall increase in global affluence. ■ Although the private sector plays a crucial role in
■ Today, agricultural producers around the world are the development of new agricultural techniques and
facing new challenges as global climate changes products, public funding has been the backbone of
become increasingly unpredictable. Inconsistent rain, many agriculture and food system advances.
extreme temperatures, droughts, flooding, wildfires, ■ While agricultural research and development has
and shifting pest and disease patterns are just a few historically focused primarily on increasing yields, this
of the obstacles farmers face as they try to feed their narrow focus does not adequately support the food
families and produce enough food to feed the world. requirements of today’s growing global population.
■ In spite of these dire challenges, US public agricul- ■ There must be a revitalization of public investment
tural research funding has been decreasing over the in agricultural research, American food systems, and
past several decades. This has allowed competitors international agricultural development that focuses
such as China and Brazil to outpace American inge- on the challenges of the future. US leadership is vital
nuity, take over American markets, and put American to ensuring the global research agenda does not
farmers at a disadvantage. leave farmers behind.
■ The lack of investment in agricultural research and ■ Opportunities to build upon and enhance existing
development is a critical national security concern. US agricultural research infrastructure across many
Historical US agricultural strength has contributed diverse government entities abound. The US govern-
to US hard and soft power around the world. As ment should recognize these investment opportuni-
the US food system is beset by increasing climate, ties to address current and future climate challenges.
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs is an independent, nonpartisan organization. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in
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The need for agricultural research The geographic areas where famine may occur now are
in a rapidly changing world much more highly constricted. While not eliminated as
previously thought, famines over the last four decades
Agricultural research fuels discovery that advances the 8
have also been far less deadly.
food systems upon which we all depend. For more than Public investments in agricultural research by
150 years, public investments in agricultural research in the United States and other high-income countries
the United States and around the world have revolution- have improved famine monitoring systems. The
ized agriculture and rural life, driven economic devel- Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET),
opment, advanced globalized food systems, improved the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural
human health, and transformed the human condition. Monitor (GEOGLAM), and the G7’s Agricultural Markets
th
In the 20 century, as the human population increased Information Service (AMIS) have enabled better emer-
from 1.6 billion in 1900 to approximately 6 billion in 9
gency relief and reduced future famine risk.
2000, the impact of public investment in the sciences
1 Growing challenges for farmers and
and engineering was dramatic. Investment in research
generally focused on increasing and protecting crop and food systems
livestock yields by improving efficiency through intensi- After decades of decline in famines worldwide, 2017
fied inputs, nutrients, mechanization, water, and irriga- 10
was the worst year for famine since World War II. There
tion technology. These efforts came together toward the were major concerns in four regions simultaneously:
goal of maximizing local, short-term productivity. South Sudan, Somalia, the Lake Chad region, and Ye-
The magnitude of the increases in agricultural yields 11
men. The possibility that these famines could grow into
2
as a result of these investments is truly staggering. a conflagration of complex, intersecting humanitarian
Corn yields in the United States have increased more crises rooted in conflict, poverty, and drought posed an
3
than fivefold since 1866. Corn production, the top crop unprecedented threat to global food security and to US
national security. As was clear after 2008, food crises
12
For more than 150 years, public can snowball into political and civil instability. These
cascading effects can thrust regions previously per-
investments in agricultural research in ceived stable into turmoil.
the United States and around the world Beyond the risks of famine, chronic food insecurity
have revolutionized agriculture. still haunts a quarter of the 4.1 billion people in Asia. An
estimated one in four people remains undernourished
in Sub-Saharan Africa, while over half of the continent’s
produced globally, topped 1 billion metric tons in 2018– 13
population has insufficient access to food. Nearly 9 per-
19.4 Soybeans, used in rotation with corn as a nitro- cent of the world’s population continues to suffer from
gen-fixing crop, have also steadily gained acreage with hunger, and over 20 percent of all children under five
marked increases in yield, from below 35 bushels per 14
are stunted due to malnutrition. While this number had
acre on average in the United States in 1989 to over 50 declined for 30 years, it went up by almost 60 million
5
bushels per acre by the mid-2010s. Even in dry regions people in the past five years due to natural disasters and
where sorghum, wheat, and other small grains have growing conflict. The COVID-19 pandemic could add up
been traditionally grown, corn/soybean rotations have to 132 million more hungry people in the world. An esti-
spread, resulting in intensive use of fertilizer for the corn mated 2 billion people suffer from food insecurity around
6
crop and intensive irrigation. the world, a number that has grown by 400 million since
This avalanche of agricultural production resulted in 2014. Moreover, the global population continues to grow.
the dramatic reduction of life-threatening famine during In 2020 an increasingly affluent 7.8 billion people—the
th
the 20 century relative to previous centuries. Alex de COVID pandemic notwithstanding—are soon to be an
Waal describes this as “one of the greatest unacknowl- 15
estimated 9 or 10 billion people by midcentury.
edged triumphs of our lifetime.”7 The International Food Women are at a particular disadvantage. Women are
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) did not even have a fam- 10 percent more likely to experience food insecurity
ine program until recently, as famine was considered a 16
regardless of education, income, and location. When
thing of the past when the institute was founded in 1975. conflict or major disaster affects access to food, women
CHICAGO COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS - 3
17 22
are more likely to experience food insecurity than men. tural exports every year since 2008. Beginning in
This gender gap in food access has only increased in 2018, however, trade disputes between the United
recent years, and this trend is likely to continue absent States and China have resulted in steep drops in US
18 23
intervention. agricultural exports. Overall agricultural exports in
Climate change, now very real on the American land- 2019 were down 4 percent relative to 2018, but corn
24
scape, adds further stress through increasingly frequent, exports dropped nearly 40 percent. There is gen-
complex, lengthy, and disastrous weather-related losses eral concern now that even if the trade disputes fully
19
of crops, property, and life. Extreme weather events resolve, those markets have found other suppliers and
include sudden shifts in rainfall and temperature pat- will not rebound for US producers. In 2019, Canada, the
terns, stronger storms and sustained weather events, European Union (EU), Japan, and Mexico surged ahead
25
and the increasing emergence of pests and disease that of China as leading US trade partners. Given China’s
20
can have long-term effects. The COVID-19 crisis has increasing affluence and roaring demand, there may
illuminated the weak points in our global food systems be significant implications for US agriculture and the
21
and has also revealed their fragility and complexity. communities sustained by agriculture if China more per-
At the same time, food supply chains around the manently pulls away from the United States as a major
world are being profoundly reshaped. Before 2018 trading partner.
China was one of the top two markets for US agricul-
Figure 1
Research and development funding by federal agency as a share of the
total federal budget (1976–2020)
Department of Defene Department of Energy Natonal cence oundaton
Natonal nttute of ealt NAA Department of Agrculture
4
3
2
ercentage of federal budget
P
1
0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source: American Association for the Advancement of Science
4 - NEW SOLUTIONS FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE
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